Estate Agent Activity rating hints at an economy slowly bottoming

PROPERTY BAROMETER

FNB Estate Agent Survey Activity Levels

The FNB Estate Agent Survey Activity Rating showed a slight increase in the 4th quarter of 2016. But one swallow doesn’t
make a summer, and we will have to wait to see if this represents the market “bottoming out”.

ESTATE AGENT ACTIVITY RATING HINTS AT AN ECONOMY SLOWLY “BOTTOMING”

In the 4th quarter 2016 FNB Estate Agent Survey, our sample of estate agents surveyed point to a slight improvement in activity levels in the residential
market. But the level remains weak, and it is too early to say whether this one quarter rise is merely “noise” or the start of a strengthening trend. On a yearon-
year basis the rate of change remains negative.

FNB ESTATE AGENT SURVEY MARKET ACTIVITY RATING

The FNB Estate Agent Survey is a survey of a sample of estate agents predominantly in SA’s major metro regions. A key question asked to agents is
with regard to their perceptions of residential market activity in their areas, a subjective question on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being the strongest level of
activity.
The 4th Quarter 2016 Residential Activity Indicator rose slightly to 5.75, from the previous quarter’s 5.59.

Quarter-to-quarter fluctuations, however, can be driven to a significant degree by seasonal factors prevalent in the housing market. To examine the strength of
the market excluding seasonal factors, we create a statistically Seasonally Adjusted Activity Rating. According to this measure, too, the Activity rating rose
slightly in the 4th quarter of 2016, from 5.68 in the previous Quarter to a level of 5.8.

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